The Debacle of Agriculture in the Indus Basin

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The Indus Basin is basically an agrarian economy. The contribution of the agriculture in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is continuously declining from 60 percent to nearly 19 percent. The agriculture is subjected to vagaries of weather and supported worldwide by the national governments, but Pakistan/s government has reduced support due to external pressures of donors especially International Monetary Fund (IMF). The US and Western Governments are providing nearly one billion dollar a day. Pakistan’s agriculture lost comparative and competitive advantage due to cost price squeeze. The government of day has conveniently withdrawn support in the product markets, but input market is controlled market. The author of this article posed a question to a very high official of IMF that why you advocate withdrawing support in the output market by the member governments and closed your eyes when the same governments control input put markets. This is against the dictum of Smithian markets. The learned IMF expert replied that the agency must get back the loan.

Since the contribution of agriculture is decreasing due to rapid industrialization, growing service sector and declining productivity of this predominantly dominant sector. The donor pressure is to take away all the support for agriculture especially commodities while showing the door for markets, but input markets are controlled by the government. In this way agriculture has lost the comparative and competitive advantage in the international markets.

The agriculture sector in the Indus Basin has faced several challenges over the years, leading to what many describe as a debacle or crisis in this vital region. This combination of factors has resulted in declining agricultural output, increased rural poverty, and food security concerns in the region. However, agriculture sector is the main stay of the rural economy. Agriculture found a boost with the introduction of Green Revolution (GR) Technologies during late 60’s and early 70’s but with passage of time the farming community did not learn, and GR dwindle down.

The challenges faced by Punjab and similar regions often stem from a combination of factors, including agricultural policy shortcomings, implementation issues, and support system gaps. It’s fair to say that policy failures or gaps can play a significant role in driving inefficiencies, declining productivity, and rural hardships.

In Punjab, for example, issues such as outdated irrigation practices, lack of modernization, insufficient subsidy or support programs, and inadequate extension services have historically hampered progress. If policies are not effectively designed or implemented, farmers may struggle with resource access, technological adoption, and market linkages.

The irony is that 90 percent of the resources are spent on five crops and there was benign neglect of diversification and intensification of crop husbandry. If we look at the performance of all these five crops, the picture is quite gloomy. The average wheat area during 2021-24 is nearly 9 million hectares with mean production of 28.7 million with average yield of 3 tons with CV of 9 percent in the corresponding period. The average price of last five years Rs. 1800 and showing CV of 80 percent depicting lots of variation. The average yield is 4 tons per Ha in the next-door neighbor East Punjab.

The story of rice crop is not different, rice area for the last five years average 2.9 million hectares with CV as 12 percent, average production is 7 million tons (CV:23 percent), yield average is 2.4 tons per Ha (CV: 7 percent) and average price Rs. 6700 per 40 Kg (CV: 67 percent) in the period under study. In case maize the average area 1.2 million Ha (CV 23 percent), production 6.8 million tons (CV: 40 percent), average yield 4.6 tons per Ha (CV: 24 percent), and average price Rs 1800 40 KG (CV:68 percent).

The average area under sugar cane 1.14 million Ha (CV:8 percent; production 71 million tons (CV:19 percent); yield is 60 tons her Ha (CV: 15 percent); and average price Rs 210 per 40 Kg (CV: 67 percent). The average cottons area for the last five years 2.6 million Ha, production is 7 million tons (CV: 23 percent), yield on an average 684 kg per ha and price average Rs 4381 per 40 Kg (CV: 72 percent).

The analysis of crop sub sector led us to believe that productivity per Ha is very low, the sector does not demonstrate diversification, lack of intensification, and price variation among all crops 60-70 percent thus stifling profitability of the crop sub-sector. The sector is also facing powerful syndicates (Flour Mills association, APTIMA, Sugar Mills Association, REAP and Maize Product Mills) which play around commodities prices in favor of their own dreadful advantage.

However, it’s also important to understand that these problems are complex and multi-faceted, often involving institutional, infrastructural, socioeconomic, and environmental dimensions. For a comprehensive improvement, policymakers need to review existing policies critically, strengthen implementation mechanisms, and engage stakeholders—particularly farmers—to ensure agriculture policies catering the real ground-level needs. There are some of the key issues include but not limited to, are discussed below., are discussed below.

Water Shortage: The Indus Basin relies heavily on water from the Indus River and its tributaries, but increased demand, inefficient water use, and reduced river flow due to upstream activities have led to significant water scarcity. This affects crop yields and irrigation practices. Until recently India has scuttled the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) and the Guarantor (World Bank) has closed eyes on this uncalled-for unilateral decision on IWT by India. Thus, Pakistan is suffering from water shortages being the lower riparian. In addition, during monsoon western rivers put pressures on unauthorized dams and India opens spill ways to release pressures causing heavy floods in Pakistan.
Soil Degradation secondary salinity: Over-irrigation and poor drainage have caused salinity buildup and soil degradation, reduced land productivity and threatening the sustainability of agriculture in the region. The secondary salinity has propped up especially in Punjab and Sindh where there is mushroom growth of tubewells in the absence of Ground Water Authority for strict regulation. Nearly 50–60-million-acre feet water ground water is pumped, of which 40-50 percent tubewells are pumping brackish water which quite unfit for irrigation and causing secondary salinity.
Climate Variation: Rising temperatures, unpredictable weather patterns, and glacial melt impact water availability and crop patterns, further stressing the agricultural system.
Small Land Holdings and Technology Gaps: Small and fragmented landholdings hinder mechanization and efficient farming practices, reducing overall variation in productivity: Insufficient infrastructure for storage, transportation, and access to modern technology hampers productivity and market access for farmers.
Policy and Institutional Failures: Lack of cohesive policies, weak implementation, and inadequate support for farmers contribute to inefficiencies and decline.

To address support system gaps and enhance rural livelihoods in regions namely Punjab, and Sindh targeted policy reforms could include:

Revitalization of Agricultural Extension Services:
• Expand and modernize extension services to provide farmers with inclusive approach including modern technical knowledge on crop management, sustainable practices, and market oriented private crop boards with due regulation.
• Digitalization of land records and provide framework for universal reach and genuine real-time support in crop cultivation, production couple with marketing through financial subsidy.
Ensure agricultural Credit and Financial Support to Small farmers:
• Provide tailored made agricultural credit schemes by all country’s financial institutions especially targeting 90 percent small farmers with flexible repayment options to help farmers invest in quality seeds, fertilizers, equipment and facilitating in marketing of their produce.
• Promote microfinance institutions in providing financial support and out- reach facilities while targeting small smallholders.
Provide support in creating farmer’s markets and Infrastructure:
• Invest in creating farmers markets near all small and large towns and develop rural infrastructure such as mettled roads leading to such markets and build cold storage facilities, processing units, and transportation networks to reduce post-harvest losses and improve market access.
• Establish contract farming on large farms and provide direct linkages of sellers with buyers.
Encourage Crop Insurance and Crop Risk management measures:
• Develop doable crop insurance and risk management schemes for flood control, drought and pests’ damages to their crop produce.
• The extension services should train farmers in risk management and should demonstrate them different crop diversification strategies while holding demonstrated farmer’s days as a regular phenomenon.
Intensification, Diversification and Sustainable Approaches:
• Crop intensification in obtaining intensive margins of principal crops and encourage crop diversification, including cover and border crops, fruit and horticulture plants, livestock and allied sectors, to reduce dependency on a mono crop namely cotton.
• Introduce and promote organic farming and water management techniques and develop strategies for sustainability.
Land Records and ownership Rights:
• Computerized land records in whole of Pakistan and ensure tenancy rights to empower farmers and help facilitate agriculture credit schemes.
Upskill and Farmer’s capacity building and Policy coordination:
• Holding workshops on modern technologies, encourage value added crops, and diversification of income through entrepreneurship. to diversify income sources.
• Encourage stronger coordination among various departments, participation of local councils, and farmer organizations to ensure policies are responsive and effectively implemented.

Implementing these reforms requires continuous engagement with farmers to tailor made solutions to ground realities and building robust monitoring systems to assess progress. Integrating traditional knowledge with modern agricultural practices can significantly enhance rural livelihoods by combining the best of both worlds. Here are some ways to achieve this:

Documentation and valuing of indigiounes methods: Understand and accordingly adopt traditional farming practices, crop mix, and soil amendment methods. This provides precious knowledge and establishes solid integrated foundation.
Mixed Farming Systems: introduce farming practices that include indigenous methods—namely organic agriculture, crop mix, and water saving technology—coupled with precision land levelling, use of harvesters and other mechanical tools to augment yields and sustain agriculture.
Inclusive Research and Extension approaches: Engage local farmers in research endeavors in adapting new innovative methods keeping in view their traditional practices. The agriculture out-reach agents provide modern knowledge and make joint efforts to provide alternative solutions.
Use local Crop Varieties: Encourage the cultivation of indigenous or local crop cultivars that are resistent to local pests, diseases, and climate conditions, while the use of chemical technology.
Training of farmers in Capacity Building: Schedule workshops and training programs and hold farmers meetings to provide local farmers how to use local methods with modern techniques in fostering modern innovations and conduct several experiments in order to increase productivity of food and fiber crops.
Policy Initiatives: Follow policies and practices that recognize and support traditional knowledge systems, providing financial support and incentives in integrating them in the mainstream agriculture. Most of the agricultural policies and agricultural commission recommendation are not implemented for want of financial support and national commitments at the highest level,

By adopting and acknowledging traditional practices alongside scientific advancements, rural areas can easily achieve more sustainable, resilient, and profitable agriculture.

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